China should take note of OpenAI's new open-weight model, say analysts

Analysts say China should pay close attention to OpenAI’s latest move with the launch of GPT-oss, a new family of large language models featuring open weights. This marks OpenAI’s first open-weight model release in over five years, since GPT-2 in 2019, and represents a significant shift in the company’s approach to AI development and distribution. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced the models on X, stating they are “the best and most usable open model in the world.” Open weights mean that the internal parameters of the model are publicly available, allowing developers to inspect, adapt, and deploy the model without needing access to the full source code. This differs from fully open-source models, which include both code and weights under permissive licenses. Ray Wang, research director for semiconductors and emerging technology at Futurum Group, said OpenAI’s move was likely influenced by the strong market response to China’s recent open-source models, particularly DeepSeek’s releases in January, which sent shockwaves through the AI community. He noted that GPT-oss has narrowed the performance and scale gap between the US and China, though China still holds a slight edge due to a broader and more diverse portfolio of competitive open models. Chinese open-source offerings include Alibaba’s Qwen series, Baidu’s ERNIE 4.5, Moonshot’s Kimi K2, and DeepSeek’s V3 and R1. These models have gained traction among developers and enterprises, especially in China’s domestic tech ecosystem. Wei Sun, principal analyst for AI at Counterpoint Research, warned that OpenAI’s announcement could prompt Chinese firms to accelerate their own open-source releases. She emphasized that the goal is not just technical advancement but also ecosystem dominance—embedding models into widely used platforms like Alipay and WeChat to capture downstream value and user engagement. Lian Jye Su, chief analyst at Omdia, added that China’s push for open-source AI is also a strategic response to increasing restrictions on access to US technology. It’s about building influence, attracting developers, and establishing global standards rooted in Chinese values and infrastructure. Nathaniel Lambert, senior research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI, warned that if the US fails to keep pace, Chinese models could become the default foundation for global AI applications and research. “American companies risk becoming secondary players rather than leaders in the AI revolution,” he said. The political dimension is clear. The Trump administration’s “America’s AI Action Plan” stresses the need for US-led open models grounded in American values, arguing they could shape global AI norms. Tech leaders like Marc Andreessen have echoed this, warning that model weights carry embedded assumptions and values that are difficult to change after deployment. While OpenAI’s move is seen as a cultural milestone, some analysts remain cautious. Sun noted that GPT-oss is not fully open source under the Open Source Initiative’s definition, calling it more symbolic than transformative. Timing also raises questions—OpenAI’s announcement came just days after the release of the US government’s AI plan, suggesting strong political and public relations motivations. Other US companies like xAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta have also released open-weight models, including Grok-1 and Gemma. However, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has signaled that future versions of its powerful Llama models may not remain open. Despite these developments, analysts agree that OpenAI’s GPT-oss marks a turning point—one that could prompt China to double down on its open-source strategy, intensifying the global competition over AI standards, values, and control.