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5 months ago

Effective Benchmarks for Optical Turbulence Modeling

Christopher Jellen; Charles Nelson; Cody Brownell; John Burkhardt

Effective Benchmarks for Optical Turbulence Modeling

Abstract

Optical turbulence presents a significant challenge for communication, directed energy, and imaging systems, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. Effective modeling of optical turbulence strength is critical for the development and deployment of these systems. The lack of standard evaluation tools, especially long-term data sets, modeling tasks, metrics, and baseline models, prevent effective comparisons between approaches and models. This reduces the ease of reproducing results and contributes to over-fitting on local micro-climates. Performance characterized using evaluation metrics provides some insight into the applicability of a model for predicting the strength of optical turbulence. However, these metrics are not sufficient for understanding the relative quality of a model. We introduce the \texttt{otbench} package, a Python package for rigorous development and evaluation of optical turbulence strength prediction models. The package provides a consistent interface for evaluating optical turbulence models on a variety of benchmark tasks and data sets. The \texttt{otbench} package includes a range of baseline models, including statistical, data-driven, and deep learning models, to provide a sense of relative model quality. \texttt{otbench} also provides support for adding new data sets, tasks, and evaluation metrics. The package is available at \url{https://github.com/cdjellen/otbench}.

Code Repositories

Benchmarks

BenchmarkMethodologyMetrics
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2Minute Climatology
RMSE: 0.551
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2GBRT
RMSE: 0.428
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2Mean Window Forecast
RMSE: 0.481
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2Linear Forecast
RMSE: 0.930
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2Persistence
RMSE: 1.227
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2RNN
RMSE: 0.581
time-series-forecasting-on-mlo-cn2Climatology
RMSE: 0.658
time-series-forecasting-on-usna-cn2-shortMinute Climatology
RMSE: 0.453
time-series-forecasting-on-usna-cn2-shortGBRT
RMSE: 0.160
time-series-forecasting-on-usna-cn2-shortRNN
RMSE: 0.187
time-series-forecasting-on-usna-cn2-shortPersistence
RMSE: 0.821
time-series-forecasting-on-usna-cn2-shortMean Window Forecast
RMSE: 0.182
time-series-regression-on-mlo-cn2Climatology
RMSE: 0.661
time-series-regression-on-mlo-cn2RNN
RMSE: 0.336
time-series-regression-on-mlo-cn2Minute Climatology
RMSE: 0.504
time-series-regression-on-mlo-cn2GBRT
RMSE: 0.212
time-series-regression-on-mlo-cn2Persistence
RMSE: 1.209
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termMacro Meteorological
RMSE: 1.217
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termPersistence
RMSE: 1.208
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termHybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
RMSE: 0.458
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termGBRT
RMSE: 1.340
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termRNN
RMSE: 0.530
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termOffshore Macro Meteorological
RMSE: 0.675
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termClimatology
RMSE: 0.632
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termAir-Water Temperature Difference
RMSE: 1.046
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-long-termMinute Climatology
RMSE: 0.625
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortRNN
RMSE: 0.375
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortMinute Climatology
RMSE: 0.452
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortAir-Water Temperature Difference
RMSE: 0.910
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortPersistence
RMSE: 0.758
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortClimatology
RMSE: 0.480
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortGBRT
RMSE: 0.299
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortHybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
RMSE: 0.303
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortOffshore Macro Meteorological
RMSE: 0.178
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortLinear Forecast
RMSE: 0.358
time-series-regression-on-usna-cn2-shortMacro Meteorological
RMSE: 0.864

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